America 2100: Will Your City Still Exist?

Imagine the United States in 2100. A new study paints a dramatic picture: nearly half of America’s 30,000 cities could shrink significantly, losing up to a quarter of their people. This isn’t about whole cities vanishing, but about a transformation into fractured, thinner, or sprawling communities. Think less bustling streets and more empty storefronts.  

This change isn’t just about numbers; it’s about how we live. As populations decline and age, cities may struggle to provide basic services. Imagine disruptions to public transit, water, electricity, and internet. Picture grocery stores closing, creating “food deserts” where fresh food is scarce. Think about crumbling infrastructure and neglected towns, like the water crisis in Jackson, Mississippi, but potentially nationwide.

The researchers, who initially studied transportation in Illinois, expanded their work to cover all 50 states. Using census data and climate predictions, they looked at the future of cities, big and small. Right now, 43% of US cities are losing people. By 2100, that number could jump to a staggering 64%, depending on how the climate changes.  

The Northeast and Midwest are predicted to be hit hardest. Even states like Texas and Utah, which are growing now, could see population declines in some cities by the end of the century. This isn’t just about small towns; it could affect larger urban areas too.  

It’s important to remember that predicting the future is tricky. The study acknowledges that these are estimates, and doesn’t fully explore all the reasons behind these changes, like economic shifts, social trends, or people moving within the country. But the message is clear: America’s cities are facing a potential transformation, and we need to be ready. Sources and related content